Predicting Purchase Decisions in Mobile Free-to-Play Games


  • Rafet Sifa Fraunhofer IAIS
  • Fabian Hadiji TU Dortmund,
  • Julian Runge Wooga GmbH
  • Anders Drachen Aalborg University
  • Kristian Kersting TU Dortmund
  • Christian Bauckhage Fraunhofer IAIS



Behavioral Analytics, Behavioral Profiling, Statistical Data Mining, Forecasting Player Behavior


Mobile digital games are dominantly released under the freemium business model, but only a small fraction of the players makes any purchases. The ability to predict who will make a purchase enables optimization of marketing efforts, and tailoring customer relationship management to the specific user's profile. Here this challenge is addressed via two models for predicting purchasing players, using a 100,000 player dataset: 1) A classification model focused on predicting whether a purchase will occur or not. 2) a regression model focused on predicting the number of purchases a user will make. Both models are presented within a decision and regression tree framework for building rules that are actionable by companies. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study investigating purchase decisions in freemium mobile products from a user behavior perspective and adopting behavior-driven learning approaches to this problem.




How to Cite

Sifa, R., Hadiji, F., Runge, J., Drachen, A., Kersting, K., & Bauckhage, C. (2021). Predicting Purchase Decisions in Mobile Free-to-Play Games. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Interactive Digital Entertainment, 11(1), 79-85.