Tearing at the Seams? Automation and the Decline of Democracy

Abstract

Macro-historically speaking, the concept of governing societies through democratic means is relatively novel and the exception rather than the norm: A unique set of conditions and circumstances has given rise to and enabled the persistence of modern democracies, but these conditions that may not hold in the near and distant future, giving rise to and accelerating dynamics of democratic decline and backsliding that are already observable today. Advances in science and technology have the potential to radically alter fundamental economic, political and societal systems and interactions, contributing to a rising number of challenges to democratic regimes. This paper investigates what causal factors hold explanatory power for both the rise and prevalence of democratic regimes, and what changes in these factors caused by advanced Artificial Intelligence imply about the future of democracy. A literature review was conducted to identify competing explanations for the historical emergence of modern democracies, as well as explanations for the “evolutionary advantage” that helps explain their proliferation and endurance over time. Based on the results of this analysis and forecasts about future technology development and diffusion, possible implications about the trajectory of democracies and the possibility of their decline are discussed. We find that democracies are threatened most by the transformations caused by the large-scale automation of labor and the possibility of rising inequality. The partial or full automation of the military, as well as the development and diffusion of novel technologies that lower the cost of repression, play a contributing role in disproportionately empowering autocrats, undermining democratic principles and eroding what used to be the very assets that helped democracies outperform and outmaneuver dictatorial regimes.