Mapping IAEA Verification Tools to International AI Governance: A Mechanism-by-Mechanism Analysis

Abstract

Verification – the process used to confirm whether actors are complying with agreed-upon rules or obligations – is a central piece of the AI governance puzzle. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations’s “nuclear watchdog,” safeguards – through its own verification mechanisms – nuclear technology to ensure it is not diverted for military purposes. Therefore, understanding the current international nuclear safeguards regime can inform and potentially guide examination of options for future international AI verification. This report assesses the IAEA at a granular, technical level, conducting a systematic analysis of 24 verification tools used within the Department of Safeguards for State nuclear program evaluations, assessing each for potential applicability to AI-related verification and addressing the technical specifications and challenges of implementation.