Predicting ICU Mortality Risk by Grouping Temporal Trends from a Multivariate Panel of Physiologic Measurements

Abstract

ICU mortality risk prediction may help clinicians take effective interventions to improve patient outcome. Existing machine learning approaches often face challenges in integrating a comprehensive panel of physiologic variables and presenting to clinicians interpretable models. We aim to improve both accuracy and interpretability of prediction models by introducing Subgraph Augmented Non-negative Matrix Factorization (SANMF) on ICU physiologic time series. SANMF converts time series into a graph representation and applies frequent subgraph mining to automatically extract temporal trends. We then apply non-negative matrix factorization to group trends in a way that approximates patient pathophysiologic states. Trend groups are then used as features in training a logistic regression model for mortality risk prediction, and are also ranked according to their contribution to mortality risk. We evaluated SANMF against four empirical models on the task of predicting mortality or survival 30 days after discharge from ICU using the observed physiologic measurements between 12 and 24 hours after admission. SANMF outperforms all comparison models, and in particular, demonstrates an improvement in AUC (0.848 vs. 0.827, p<0.002) compared to a state-of-the-art machine learning method that uses manual feature engineering. Feature analysis was performed to illuminate insights and benefits of subgraph groups in mortality risk prediction.