Effects of Mainstream Visibility on Conspiracy Communities: Reddit After Epstein’s ‘Suicide’

Abstract

Following the death of Jeffrey Epstein, the subreddit r/conspiracy experienced a significant visibility shock that brought mainstream users into direct contact with established conspiracy narratives. In this work, we explore how large-scale surges in public attention reshape participation and discourse within online conspiracy communities. We ask whether a sudden increase in exposure changes who join r/conspiracy, how long they stay, and how they adapt linguistically, compared with users who arrive through organic discovery. Using a computational framework that combines toxicity scores, survival analysis, and lexical and semantic measures over a period of 12 months, we find that mainstream visibility functions as a selection mechanism rather than a simple amplifier. Users who discover the conspiracy community through more organic pathways tend to integrate more quickly into its linguistic and thematic norms and show more stable engagement over time. By contrast, users who arrive during the height of public visibility remain semantically distant from core discourse and participate more briefly. Overall, we find that mainstream visibility is connected with changes in audience size, community composition, and linguistic cohesion. However, incidental exposure during attention shocks does not typically produce durable, integrated community members. These results provide a more nuanced understanding of how external events and platform visibility influence the growth and evolution of conspiracy spaces, offering insights for the design of responsible and transparent recommendation systems.