The Chance of Winning Election Impacts on Social Media Strategy


  • Taichi Murayama SANKEN, Osaka University
  • Akira Matsui Yokohama National University
  • Kunihiro Miyazaki Indiana University Bloomington
  • Yasuko Matsubara SANKEN, Osaka University
  • Yasushi Sakurai SANKEN, Osaka University



Qualitative and quantitative studies of social media, Social media usage on mobile devices; location, human mobility, and behavior, Measuring predictability of real world phenomena based on social media, e.g., spanning politics, finance, and health


Social media has been a paramount arena for election campaigns for political actors. While many studies have been paying attention to the political campaigns related to partisanship, politicians also can conduct different campaigns according to their chances of winning. Leading candidates, for example, do not behave the same as fringe candidates in their elections, and vice versa. We, however, know little about this difference in social media political campaign strategies according to their odds in elections. We tackle this problem by analyzing candidates' tweets in terms of users, topics, and sentiment of replies. Our study finds that, as their chances of winning increase, candidates narrow the targets they communicate with, from people in general to the electrical districts and specific persons (verified accounts or accounts with many followers). Our study brings new insights into the candidates' campaign strategies through the analysis based on the novel perspective of the candidate's electoral situation.




How to Cite

Murayama, T., Matsui, A., Miyazaki, K., Matsubara, Y., & Sakurai, Y. (2023). The Chance of Winning Election Impacts on Social Media Strategy. Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, 17(1), 674-685.