Predicting the Audience Size of a Tweet

Abstract

We study information dissemination in Twitter. We present an analysis of two important characteristics of so called retweet cascades: retweet count and show count, i.e., number of users that receive the tweet in their feed. We show that these two measures behave differently. We describe three models that are aimed to predict the audience size of a tweet: first one utilizes only the data available at the moment of the initial tweet, the second one utilizes the spread of the cascade up to some moment while the third one is an online prediction.