Effectively Predicting Whether and When a Topic Will Become Prevalent in a Social Network


  • Weiwei Liu University of Technology
  • Zhi-Hong Deng Peking University
  • Xiuwen Gong Anhui Normal University
  • Frank Jiang University of New South Wales
  • Ivor Tsang University of Technology




social network, time series, probability model


Effective forecasting of future prevalent topics plays animportant role in social network business development.It involves two challenging aspects: predicting whethera topic will become prevalent, and when. This cannotbe directly handled by the existing algorithms in topicmodeling, item recommendation and action forecasting.The classic forecasting framework based on time seriesmodels may be able to predict a hot topic when a seriesof periodical changes to user-addressed frequency in asystematic way. However, the frequency of topics discussedby users often changes irregularly in social networks.In this paper, a generic probabilistic frameworkis proposed for hot topic prediction, and machine learningmethods are explored to predict hot topic patterns.Two effective models, PreWHether and PreWHen, areintroduced to predict whether and when a topic will becomeprevalent. In the PreWHether model, we simulatethe constructed features of previously observed frequencychanges for better prediction. In the PreWHen model,distributions of time intervals associated with the emergenceto prevalence of a topic are modeled. Extensiveexperiments on real datasets demonstrate that ourmethod outperforms the baselines and generates moreeffective predictions.




How to Cite

Liu, W., Deng, Z.-H., Gong, X., Jiang, F., & Tsang, I. (2015). Effectively Predicting Whether and When a Topic Will Become Prevalent in a Social Network. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 29(1). https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v29i1.9197