Burst Time Prediction in Cascades

Abstract

Studying the bursty nature of cascades in social media is practically important in many applications such as product sales prediction, disaster relief, and stock market prediction. Although the cascade volume prediction has been extensively studied, how to predict when a burst will come remains an open problem. It is challenging to predict the time of the burst due to the ``quick rise and fall'' pattern and the diverse time spans of the cascades. To this end, this paper proposes a classification based approach for burst time prediction by utilizing and modeling rich knowledge in information diffusion. Particularly, we first propose a time window based approach to predict in which time window the burst will appear. This paves the way to transform the time prediction task to a classification problem. To address the challenge that the original time series data of the cascade popularity only are not sufficient for predicting cascades with diverse magnitudes and time spans, we explore rich information diffusion related knowledge and model them in a scale-independent manner. Extensive experiments on a Sina Weibo reposting dataset demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed approach in accurately predicting the burst time of posts.