Uncovering Hidden Degeneration: A Physics-Guided Bidirectional Inference Framework for Industrial Time Series Prediction

Abstract

Hidden degenerations in industrial time series often precede observable failures, they remain undetected by standard monitoring systems until anomalies become apparent. This gap between microscopic degradation and macroscopic observation renders conventional predictors inherently reactive, as they rely on correlations in sensor data rather than uncovering the underlying, physics‑consistent degradation states. Crucially, the microscopic mechanisms governing system evolution depend on macroscopic state variables—whose measurements are expectations over microscopic probability distributions—so purely data‑driven “top‑down” or purely physics‑guided “bottom‑up” approaches cannot forecast degeneration‑entangled industrial faults. To address these challenges, we propose a Physics-Guided Bidirectional Inference Framework that represents hidden microscopic states from macroscopic measurements. Our approach uniquely combines: (1) bottom-up physics-based simulation using Continuum Damage Mechanics to model micro-scale damage evolution under environmental stressors, and (2) top-down probabilistic inference via maximum entropy formalism to estimate latent microstate distributions from sparse sensor data. This bidirectional mechanism enables early failure prediction by bridging observable measurements with unobservable degeneration. Validation on real-world railway infrastruc datasets demonstrates significant improvements in early fault prediction compared to state-of-the-art baselines. Our method establishes a new paradigm for safety-critical industrial applications requiring reliable prediction of hidden degeneration processes.