LMGL-WD: LLM-Guided Multi-Task Graph Learning for Category-Level Warehouse Demand Prediction in E-Commerce

Abstract

In warehouse-based e-commerce, accurate category-level warehouse demand prediction is essential to ensure effective inventory management. Existing works mainly explore advanced time series models to capture the temporal dynamics, failing to mine cross-category and cross-warehouse correlations effectively. In this paper, we explore large language models to understand the semantic information and fuse multi-view knowledge to enhance demand prediction. However, it is not trivial due to: i) the inaccurate LLM’s understanding of the category-related and warehouse-related textual input; and ii) the complicated cross-warehouse knowledge utilization. To solve the above challenges, we propose an LLM-guided multi-task graph learning framework, LMGL-WD, for category-level warehouse demand prediction. Specifically, LMGL-WD includes three components: i) an LLM-guided category series encoding module to represent each category through contextual and series embedding; ii) a cross-warehouse category learning module to adaptively mine the informative knowledge from cross warehouses to enhance category representation; and iii) a cross-category multi-task learning module to adaptively capture cross-category correlations to improve demand prediction. Extensive evaluation results with real-world data collected from one of the largest e-commerce platforms in China demonstrate that LMGL-WD achieves superior performance, e.g., reduces MAPE by up to 31.59%, compared to state-of-the-art methods.