Modeling Trend Dynamics with Variational Neural ODEs for Information Popularity Prediction

Abstract

Predicting the future popularity of information in online social networks is a crucial yet challenging task, due to the complex spatiotemporal dynamics underlying information diffusion. Existing methods typically use structural or sequential patterns within the observation window as direct inputs for subsequent popularity prediction. However, most approaches lack the ability to explicitly model the overall trend of popularity up to the prediction time, which leads to limited predictive capability. To address these limitations, we propose VNOIP, a novel method based on variational neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) for information popularity prediction. Specifically, VNOIP introduces bidirectional jump ODEs with attention mechanisms to capture long-range dependencies and bidirectional context within cascade sequences. Furthermore, by jointly considering both cascade patterns and overall trend temporal patterns, VNOIP explicitly models the continuous-time dynamics of popularity trend trajectories with variational neural ODEs. Additionally, a knowledge distillation loss is employed to align the evolution of prior and posterior latent variables. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that VNOIP is highly competitive in both prediction accuracy and efficiency compared to state-of-the-art baselines.