Piecewise Linear Transformation – Propagating Aleatoric Uncertainty in Neural Networks

Abstract

Real-world data typically exhibit aleatoric uncertainty which has to be considered during data-driven decision-making to assess the confidence of the decision provided by machine learning models. To propagate aleatoric uncertainty represented by probability distributions (PDs) through neural networks (NNs), both sampling-based and function approximation-based methods have been proposed. However, these methods suffer from significant approximation errors and are not able to accurately represent predictive uncertainty in the NN output. In this paper, we present a novel method, Piecewise Linear Transformation (PLT), for propagating PDs through NNs with piecewise linear activation functions (e.g., ReLU NNs). PLT does not require sampling or specific assumptions about the PDs. Instead, it harnesses the piecewise linear structure of such NNs to determine the propagated PD in the output space. In this way, PLT supports the accurate quantification of predictive uncertainty based on the criterion exactness of the propagated PD. We assess this exactness in theory by showing error bounds for our propagated PD. Further, our experimental evaluation validates that PLT outperforms competing methods on publicly available real-world classification and regression datasets regarding exactness. Thus, the PDs propagated by PLT allow to assess the uncertainty of the provided decisions, offering valuable support.