PEN: Prediction-Explanation Network to Forecast Stock Price Movement with Better Explainability

Abstract

Nowadays explainability in stock price movement prediction is attracting increasing attention in banks, hedge funds and asset managers, primarily due to audit or regulatory reasons. Text data such as financial news and social media posts can be part of the reasons for stock price movement. To this end, we propose a novel framework of Prediction-Explanation Network (PEN) jointly modeling text streams and price streams with alignment. The key component of the PEN model is an shared representation learning module that learns which texts are possibly associated with the stock price movement by modeling the interaction between the text data and stock price data with a salient vector characterizing their correlation. In this way, the PEN model is able to predict the stock price movement by identifying and utilizing abundant messages while on the other hand, the selected text messages also explain the stock price movement. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that we are able to kill two birds with one stone: in terms of accuracy, the proposed PEN model outperforms the state-of-art baseline; on explainability, the PEN model are demonstrated to be far superior to attention mechanism, capable of picking out the crucial texts with a very high confidence.