A Synthetic Prediction Market for Estimating Confidence in Published Work

Authors

  • Sarah Rajtmajer The Pennsylvania State University
  • Christopher Griffin The Pennsylvania State University
  • Jian Wu Old Dominion University
  • Robert Fraleigh The Pennsylvania State University
  • Laxmaan Balaji The Pennsylvania State University
  • Anna Squicciarini The Pennsylvania State University
  • Anthony Kwasnica The Pennsylvania State University
  • David Pennock Rutgers University
  • Michael McLaughlin The Pennsylvania State University
  • Timothy Fritton The Pennsylvania State University
  • Nishanth Nakshatri The Pennsylvania State University
  • Arjun Menon The Pennsylvania State University
  • Sai Ajay Modukuri The Pennsylvania State University
  • Rajal Nivargi The Pennsylvania State University
  • Xin Wei Old Dominion University
  • C. Lee Giles The Pennsylvania State University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v36i11.21733

Keywords:

Prediction Markets, Synthetic Prediction Markets, Feature Extraction, Replication

Abstract

Explainably estimating confidence in published scholarly work offers opportunity for faster and more robust scientific progress. We develop a synthetic prediction market to assess the credibility of published claims in the social and behavioral sciences literature. We demonstrate our system and detail our findings using a collection of known replication projects. We suggest that this work lays the foundation for a research agenda that creatively uses AI for peer review.
AAAI-22 Proceedings Cover

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Published

2022-06-28

How to Cite

Rajtmajer, S., Griffin, C., Wu, J., Fraleigh, R., Balaji, L., Squicciarini, A., … Giles, C. L. (2022). A Synthetic Prediction Market for Estimating Confidence in Published Work. Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 36(11), 13218–13220. https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v36i11.21733

Issue

Vol. 36 No. 11: IAAI-22, EAAI-22, AAAI-22 Special Programs and Special Track, Student Papers and Demonstrations

Section

AAAI Demonstration Track