Assessment of the Crew On-Duty Status Based on the Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Platform

Abstract

Shipping operations are high risk, complex, and uncertain activities. And a ship collision can have catastrophic consequences. The behavior and status of the crew on duty are key factors that affect the navigation safety of the ship. This paper proposes a dynamic probabilistic risk platform of Maritime Accident Dynamics Simulation (MADS) and Information, Decision, and Action in a Crew context cognitive model (IDAC). The platform simulates the cognitive and decision making processes of the crew on duty in maritime incidents and dynamically analyzes the reliability of human decisions. It can predict events and their probability values that may lead to decision failures in knowledge driven task failure scenarios. The effectiveness of the platform is verified through a case study of a ship collision. The results show that the method can simulate dynamic critical scenarios of ship collision avoidance and achieve intelligent decision-making in a human centered system.